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Like-market test · DM Control (19 markets) · DM+Digital (17 markets) · Digital Only (36 markets) · DM in-home Apr 6–9 · Digital 60-day flight · Social = retargeting layer on programmatic-exposed HH
| Tactic | Cell | Spend | Spend % | Impressions | CPM | Clicks | CTR | Conv. | Conv type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGF CTV | DO | $36,040 | 26.4% | 1,163,988 | $30.96 | 2 | 0.001% | 18 | TY page (VT) |
| AGF OLV | DO | $26,797 | 19.6% | 2,001,456 | $13.39 | 1,215 | 0.061% | 3 | TY page (VT) |
| AGF Display | DO | $16,165 | 11.8% | 3,801,540 | $4.25 | 3,213 | 0.085% | 4 | TY page |
| CAR Display | DO | $4,838 | 3.5% | 1,209,550 | $4.00 | 1,632 | 0.135% | 9 | TY page |
| AGF CTV | DM+D | $19,769 | 14.5% | 638,543 | $30.96 | 3 | 0.001% | 9 | TY page (VT) |
| AGF OLV | DM+D | $14,038 | 10.3% | 1,045,175 | $13.43 | 793 | 0.076% | 4 | TY page |
| AGF Display | DM+D | $9,441 | 6.9% | 2,220,723 | $4.25 | 2,045 | 0.092% | — | |
| CAR Display | DM+D | $2,292 | 1.7% | 572,396 | $4.00 | 764 | 0.133% | 9 | TY page |
| Meta Social | DO | $23,581 | 21.8% | 638,158 | $36.95 | 4,080 | 0.639% | 46 | WebFormInquiry* |
| Meta Social | DM+D | $12,261 | 7.4% | 326,548 | $37.55 | 2,158 | 0.661% | 25 | WebFormInquiry* |
| Programmatic total | $136,383 | 79.2% | 13,047,371 | $10.45 | 9,664 | 0.074% | 56 | TY page | |
| Social total* | $35,842 | 20.8% | 964,706 | $37.15 | 6,238 | 0.647% | 71 | WebFormInquiry | |
*Social = retargeting on prog-exposed HH. Not additive reach. WebFormInquiry conv are assisted (prog touchpoint came first) — do not aggregate with prog TY page conv.
Spend & digital metrics = cumulative April 6–May 13, 2026. Leads & CPL = Week 3 matchback cumulative. Reach = max HH reached across tactics (lower bound). "—" = not applicable for that cell.
| Market | Cell | Spend | Reach % | Avg Freq | Impressions | Clicks | CTR | Leads | CPL |
|---|
Leads = cumulative new customer leads from matchback. CPL = spend ÷ leads (blank where no leads yet). Reach and frequency not applicable for DM Control (no digital). 9 Digital Only + 2 DM+Digital markets missing from lead tab — spend included, leads = 0.
Programmatic only · sorted by total spend · "—" = cell not active · conv = thank-you page pixel fires
| Market | Digital Only | DM+Digital | Combined | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spend | Impr. | Clicks | CTR | Spend | Impr. | Clicks | CTR | Spend | Impr. | Clicks | CTR | |
Conv. shown where > 0. All conversions are thank-you page pixel fires (programmatic only). Social conversions tracked separately via WebFormInquiry.
All attributed leads are DM or Other. Zero digital-attributed leads through Week 3. One social-attributed lead appeared in Digital Only Week 3. Attribution expected to build from Week 4.
| Metric | DM Ctrl | DM+Dig | Dig Only |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markets (all 17/36) | 18 | 17 | 36 |
| Cumul. leads | 369 | 347 | 177 |
| Leads / market | 29.6 | 29.4 | 6.7 |
| Wk 5 incremental (ex-May DM) | 93 | 75 | 56 |
| Leads from DM (Wk5, stripped) | — | — | — |
| Leads digital (cum.) | — | 0 | 0 |
| Leads social (cum.) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CPL (ex-May) | $190 | $306 | $360 |
| DM resp. rate (cum.) | 1.033% | 0.860% | — |
| HH reached (max tactic) | — | 107,522 | 140,985 |
| Reach % (max tactic method) | — | 33.7% | 43.0% |
| Avg frequency | — | 43.7× | 58.5× |
Spend sourced from main delivery tab for all 17/36 markets. Markets absent from lead tab counted at zero leads. CPL is therefore an upper bound — will decrease as missing lead data is recovered.
Week 1 was low (0.030%) as only initial days of response were captured. Rates built significantly through Weeks 2–3 as response accumulated. Both cells trending toward the 0.24% plan — expect continued growth through Week 4–6 as DM response peaks. DM Control running 0.17 ppts ahead of DM+Digital — worth monitoring but within expected range.
Reach = max HH reached across tactics (lower bound). Digital Only consistently reaches higher % of its smaller HH pool than DM+Digital in the same market.
| Market | Cell | Reach % | Avg Freq |
|---|
Amber = frequency ≥ 40× (using max Digital HH Reached method). DM+Digital: 8 markets. Digital Only: 32 markets. Avg freq: DM+D 43.7×, DO 58.5×. Note: reach figures updated to use max(Digital HH Reached) per market following questions about Digital Unique HH Count field in Wk5 file.
| Observation | Read | Context |
|---|---|---|
| DM Control CPL declining: $749 → $57 (Wk3) | Expected | DM response builds over weeks. Wk1 captured only first few days of response — CPL will continue to trend down through Week 4–6 as all respondents are matched. |
| DM Control (0.80%) ahead of DM+Digital (0.70%) in RR | Watch | Small gap but DM Control is performing slightly better on raw DM response. Could reflect market mix differences rather than a digital displacement effect — too early to conclude. |
| Zero digital and social leads attributed | Expected | 16 days in. Matchback lag on digital means attributed leads will appear from Week 3 onwards. Social assists are not tracked through matchback at all. |
| 17 markets with frequency ≥ 40× | Action needed | Several markets running very high frequency on a narrow reached pool. With 44 days remaining, these markets risk significant ad fatigue. Flag to agency for frequency capping review. |
| DM response rates tracking together (0.80% vs 0.70%) | Strong signal | Like-market selection confirmed working. Both groups responding to DM at comparable rates — any CPL difference that emerges from digital can be attributed to the overlay, not market mix. |
| Milestone | Date | What to look for | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| DM in-home | Apr 6–9 | Delivery confirmed, RR tracking | Done |
| Digital campaign live | Apr 6 → | CTR, spend pacing, reach/frequency | Active — day 38 of 60 |
| Week 1 matchback | Apr 16 | Baseline leads, DM RR parity | Received |
| Week 2 matchback | Apr 22 | DM RR accumulation, first digital leads? | Received |
| Week 3 matchback | Apr 29 | Full market coverage · upgraded reach methodology · DM leads declining as expected | Received |
| Week 4 matchback | May 6 | First social lead · freq ≥40× in 29 DO markets · DM RR declining as wave matures | Received |
| Week 5 matchback | May 13 | May mailing added · reach surged to 56%/64% · freq capping implemented · DO CPL elevated by May DM costs | Received |
| Interim read — Week 4 | May 5 | First meaningful CPL comparison. Flag if DM+D CPL >30% above DM Control. | Pending |
| May suppression mailing | May | Second DM wave · 50% holdout creates second RR read | Pending |
| Primary read — Week 8 | ~Jun 2 | Full CPL comparison · go/no-go on digital overlay | Pending |
| Digital campaign ends | Jun 5 | Final spend tallied · post-flight matchback | Pending |
| Metric | DM Ctrl | DM+Dig | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markets | 19 | 17 | — |
| Leads (ex-May) | 562 | 499 | –63 |
| Leads / market | 29.6 | 29.4 | –0.2 |
| Total spend (ex-May) | $107K | $153K | +$46K digital |
| CPL (ex-May) | $190 | $306 | +$116 |
| DM-only CPL | $190 | $210 | +$20 |
| Non-DM leads | 334 | 325 | –9 |
| Non-DM lead % | 59% | 65% | +6 ppts |
| DM response rate (Apr only) | 0.90% | 0.70% | –0.20 ppts |
DM-only CPL = DM spend ÷ total leads. $33K of DM+D spend is digital. CPL will shift as digital leads accumulate. Leads/market slightly favours DM+Digital despite higher total spend.
| Metric | DM Ctrl | Dig Only | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markets | 19 | 19 | — |
| Leads (ex-May) | 562 | 241 | –321 |
| Leads / market | 29.6 | 6.7 | –22.9 |
| Total spend (ex-May) | $107K | $87K digital | — |
| CPL (ex-May) | $190 | $360 | +$170 |
| Non-DM leads | 334 | 241 | –93 |
| Non-DM lead % | 51% | 83% | +32 ppts |
| Unique HH reach | — | 64.1% | Day 38 of 60 |
Same 19 markets. DM producing materially more leads than digital at Week 3. Non-DM lead share higher in Digital Only as proportion — but absolute non-DM leads are lower because total leads are lower.
| Metric | DM+Dig | Dig Only | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Digital spend | $47,881 | $40,868 | –$7,013 |
| Non-DM leads | 325 | 241 | +84 |
| Digital CPL | $147 | $170 | –$23 |
| Prog impressions | 4.1M | 5.2M | +1.1M DO |
| Prog CTR | 0.065% | 0.069% | +0.004 ppts |
| HH reach (max tactic) | 33.7% | 43.0% | +9.3 ppts DO |
| Avg frequency | 43.7× | 58.5× | +14.8× DO |
DM+Digital producing 2.5× more non-DM leads per digital dollar than Digital Only at similar spend levels — directional signal that prior DM exposure may improve digital response.
| Market | DM CPL | DO CPL | Delta |
|---|
DM CPL = DM Control spend ÷ leads. DO CPL = Digital Only spend ÷ leads, same market. Green = digital cheaper than DM.
Both cells must respond to DM at similar rates for the like-market comparison to be valid.
Both digital cells must reach the same spend-per-HH for a valid digital comparison.
| Read | Available | What to look for | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| DM RR parity | Weekly from Wk1 | Gap between DM Control and DM+Digital — should stay stable | Live |
| DM Control CPL trajectory | Weekly from Wk2 | DM response builds over post-drop weeks — falling CPL expected | Live |
| Non-DM lead share trend | Weekly from Wk2 | Is DM+Digital non-DM share growing faster than DM Control? | Live |
| Interim CPL read (Tier 1) | Wk4 · May 5 | DM CPL approaching plateau; first cell comparison with sufficient volume | Live |
| Digital CPL read (Tier 2) | Wk5–6 | Non-DM lead volumes sufficient for reliable DM+D vs DO digital CPL comparison | Pending |
| Market efficiency segmentation | Wk6 | Which markets is Digital Only cheaper than DM? Rank by digital CPL vs DM CPL | Pending |
| Primary read (all tiers) | Wk8 · ~Jun 2 | Full digital flight — all attribution mature — go/no-go on digital overlay | Jun 2 |
| Metric | Cumulative | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Total Spend (programmatic + social) | $172,080 | On track |
| Impressions Prog 13.05M · Social 965K |
14,012,077 | On track |
| Clicks Prog 9,664 · Social 6,238 |
15,902 | On track |
| CTR Prog 0.074% · Social 0.647% (retargeting — not comparable) |
0.113% blended | On track |
| CPC (blended) | $10.83 | On track |
| CPM (blended) | $12.29 | On track |
| % HH reached (digital) Unique HH, deduplicated across all tactics including social |
DM+Digital: 33.7% (107,522 HH) Digital Only: 43.0% (140,985 HH) |
Households served at least 1 ad |
| New Prospects — non-DM leads DM+Digital + Digital Only cells · Weeks 1–3 cumulative |
575 total DM+Digital: 325 · Digital Only: 241 · DM Control: 334 (non-DM) |
Matchback data — Week 3 of 8 |
| Cost Per Prospect Total programme spend ÷ total leads |
Calculating… | Read matures at Week 6–8 as DM CPL plateaus |
| DM costs below are based on test design ($0.345/HH). Digital spend from programmatic delivery files. Leads from Weeks 1–3 matchback. Social conversions (WebFormInquiry) excluded from lead count. | ||
| Metric | Control: Direct Mail Only 19 markets |
Test: Mail + Digital 17 markets |
Test: Digital Only 36 markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Households (universe) | 319,260 | 313,504 | 317,942 |
| # HH marketed to Method |
319,260 (100%)Mail count |
313,504 mailed (100%)+ 178,484 digital (56.0%)Mail + digital unique HH |
210,304 (64.1%)Digital unique HH |
| # New prospects | 562 | 499 | 241 |
| Media cost DM costs = matchback actual (April mailing). Digital = daily delivery file through May 13 (prog + social). May DM mailing excluded from Digital Only. |
Total: $106,547
Mail: $106,547
Digital: $0
|
Total: $167,680
Mail: $105,037
Digital: $62,643 (prog + social, through May 13)
|
Total: $109,582
Mail: $0 (May mailing excluded)
Digital: $109,582 (prog + social, through May 13)
|
| Cost per prospect | $190 | $306 | $360 |
| Total response rate All leads ÷ DM pacing denominator |
0.211% | 0.174% | — |
| Unique HH reach (digital) | — | 33.7% | 43.0% |
| Avg frequency (digital) | — | 43.7× | 58.5× |
| DM cost = Ex-May suppression mailing. DM Control / DM+Digital: Week 5 DM leads removed (91 / 31). Digital Only: all DM spend and DM leads removed — digital-only basis. Non-DM leads and digital spend unaffected. | |||